Pipeline Tracker & Honest Forecast

What you'll produce

A CRM-style pipeline tracker for your Lumadesk accounts — every live deal with its stage, ARR, next step, close date, and an honest close probability — plus a weighted forecast and a working-backward activity plan that ties your quota to the exact number of meetings and outreach touches you need this quarter. This is the artifact that separates a rep who "stays busy" from one a sales manager trusts: it proves you can read a funnel, forecast without wishful thinking (Topic 4), and do the quota math that every SDR and AE lives by (Topic 8). In an interview, this single page is what lets you answer "walk me through your pipeline" and "how would you hit quota?" like someone who's already done the job — which is exactly the signal that gets entry-level reps hired.

Instructions

1. List every live account in one table. Pull your named target (GearGrid) and your look-alike accounts from Deliverables 1–4. Give each row: Account · Stage · ARR · Next step (with a date) · Close date · Probability (%). Don't pad it — a real, honest pipeline of 6–8 named accounts beats a fake one of 30.
2. Assign a stage from the standard pipeline. Use the Topic 4 stages: Prospecting → Discovery → Demo → Proposal → Negotiation → Closed-Won/Closed-Lost. Each account sits in exactly one stage based on where the deal actually is, not where you wish it were.
3. Put a real ARR on each deal. Lumadesk runs ~$40/agent/month. Estimate each account's agent count, then agents × $40 × 12 = ARR. Show your math so the number is defensible (a 25-agent support team = $12,000 ARR). Keep deals inside the $18k–$60k band the territory is built for.
4. Anchor probability to the stage, then adjust for evidence. Start from a stage baseline (e.g., Discovery ~20%, Demo ~40%, Proposal ~60%, Negotiation ~80%) and nudge up or down for real signals: a named economic buyer and a quantified pain raise it; a stalled deal or a "no budget this year" lowers it. Honesty is the graded skill — a pipeline of all-90% deals is a red flag, not a strength.
5. Write the next step as a verb with a date. "Send recap + pricing by Thu 6/18," not "follow up." Every live deal must have one concrete, owned next action — deals die when nobody drives the next step (Topic 4).
6. Compute the weighted forecast. For each open deal, ARR × probability = weighted value. Sum them. State your commit (deals you'd bet your job on, ~80%+), your best case (everything closes), and your weighted forecast (the honest middle). Name which one you'd tell your manager.
7. Check pipeline coverage against your number. Total open pipeline ÷ your quarterly target = coverage ratio. You generally need ~3–4× coverage to reliably hit quota given drop-off (Topic 8). If you're under, say so and say what you'll do about it.
8. Work backward from quota to activity. Start from your target, divide by average deal size to get deals needed, then walk up the funnel using your conversion rates (won→opps→demos→discoveries→meetings→outreach). End with a number you can act on Monday: "I need X new conversations a week."
9. Write 3–4 sentences of honest commentary. Where is the pipeline thin? Which deal is most at risk and why? What's the one action that most changes the forecast? This is the "forecast like a professional" part — name reality, don't spin it.

Rubric

The app's AI scores the learner's submission against these criteria and gives feedback. Levels: Needs work (1) / Solid (2) / Excellent (3). Passing = every criterion at Solid or above.

• Pipeline tracker completeness & deal-size consistency — 1: missing stages, ARR, or next steps; placeholders left in; or the named target's ARR contradicts its discovery agent count with no explanation · 2: every live account has a stage, ARR, dated next step, and probability, and the named target's agent count/ARR matches what discovery (Deliverable 3) established · 3: ARR is shown with agent-count math, next steps are owned verbs with dates, a Closed-Lost/Won row shows real funnel discipline, and the same agent count and ARR for the named target carry identically into the Deliverable 6 portfolio — or, if the deal expanded since discovery, the tracker names the added seats/teams and the buyer who scoped them so the growth is a deliberate land-the-team motion, not a number that drifted.
• Honest, stage-anchored probabilities — 1: arbitrary or uniformly high probabilities (everything 80–90%) · 2: probabilities track stage and are individually defensible · 3: probabilities start from stage baselines and are adjusted for real evidence (named buyer, quantified pain, stalls), with the riskiest deal explicitly kept honest rather than inflated.
• Weighted forecast — 1: no forecast, or just summing all ARR as if every deal closes · 2: computes ARR × probability, sums it, and states commit vs. best case · 3: cleanly separates commit / weighted / best case, names which number goes to the manager, and states it against the quarterly target.
• Pipeline coverage read — 1: not addressed · 2: computes coverage (pipeline ÷ target) and compares to a healthy ratio · 3: interprets the ratio honestly (e.g., "1.7× is still too thin vs. the 3–4× target"), connects thin coverage to drop-off and timing lag, flags concentration risk if one deal dominates pipeline, and names the fix.
• Working-backward activity math — 1: missing or skips the funnel · 2: walks quota → deals → opps → meetings → outreach using stated conversion rates · 3: lands on a per-week, do-it-Monday activity number and reality-checks it stage by stage against current pipeline — stating the gap at each level (e.g., "have 2 discoveries, need 54; have 6 open opps, need 16") — so the named binding constraint follows from where the funnel is actually starved, not just from total pipeline dollars.
• Honest forecasting & narrative — 1: spins or hides problems, or no commentary · 2: 3–4 sentences naming where the pipeline is thin and the most-at-risk deal · 3: forecasts like a professional — names reality under quota pressure, identifies the single highest-leverage action, and resists overpromising (echoing "stay honest under pressure").